Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 2.356235 2.504521 2.661761 2.841668 3.042765 3.261747 3.519774
2025-06-01 2.122580 2.322263 2.544749 2.813605 3.133301 3.506076 3.981014
2025-06-08 1.987923 2.217701 2.482565 2.815324 3.229551 3.738854 4.430598
2025-06-15 1.901553 2.154893 2.455127 2.844833 3.349578 4.000472 4.939415
2025-06-22 1.797407 2.059984 2.377502 2.799748 3.363415 4.118037 5.261630
2025-06-29 1.707082 1.974616 2.303551 2.749962 3.361508 4.207617 5.548664
2025-07-06 1.622450 1.890689 2.224953 2.686216 3.331890 4.250628 5.765337
2025-07-13 1.588471 1.868287 2.222910 2.722758 3.442281 4.504922 6.354291
2025-07-20 1.562169 1.853622 2.229027 2.769232 3.568794 4.795446 7.056852
2025-07-27 1.538934 1.841213 2.236566 2.816878 3.699497 5.106354 7.861445
2025-08-03 1.494783 1.798731 2.200558 2.798742 3.726607 5.248001 8.368920
2025-08-10 1.453329 1.757971 2.164652 2.777927 3.746710 5.378277 8.880573
2025-08-17 1.411587 1.715880 2.125859 2.751782 3.758171 5.498428 9.410946
2025-08-24 1.372546 1.676034 2.088453 2.725443 3.766978 5.614663 9.965598
2025-08-31 1.344868 1.650679 2.070311 2.727077 3.822015 5.823915 10.812752
2025-09-07 1.326884 1.637954 2.069477 2.755057 3.923856 6.137999 12.054124
2025-09-14 1.289654 1.596893 2.025609 2.712303 3.897475 6.187763 12.561261
2025-09-21 1.253254 1.555914 1.980377 2.665064 3.859494 6.208595 12.991484
2025-09-28 1.215044 1.511335 1.928379 2.604536 3.793320 6.161756 13.193196
2025-10-05 1.204787 1.506251 1.934768 2.639239 3.904680 6.518834 14.933475
2025-10-12 1.197475 1.505021 1.946664 2.683352 4.037240 6.947017 17.236483
2025-10-19 1.190661 1.504187 1.958948 2.728550 4.175891 7.416880 20.141930
2025-10-26 1.168776 1.480659 1.935503 2.711350 4.189181 7.576335 21.739417